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The streets of Damascus, Syria, have reflected the impacts of a decade-long conflict in the country’s recent, pivotal socio-political transitions. The change in Syria’s leadership and the emergence of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) signify notable developments in the country’s complex history of civil war. In this article, I will unpack the complex layers of this war-torn nation's trajectory from a humanist approach — starting from the escalation of protests in 2011 to the ousting of Assad’s government now, in 2024 — highlighting the profound human and societal costs of prolonged conflict resulting from age-old authoritarianism.

The country met its political turning point in 2011, in the small southern town of Daraa, where a group of teenagers spray-painted the now infamous words on a school wall: "اجاك الدور يا دكتور" (Your turn is coming, Doctor) — a reference to the ousting of Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi and a direct challenge to Bashar al-Assad, a trained ophthalmologist. The regime’s reaction was brutal. Security forces arrested and tortured civilian protestors, sparking outrage among the local population

From that point, the government escalated its response to protests, leading to widespread reports of violence. Protesters were shot, homes were raided, and dissenters were dragged into notorious facilities like the Saydnaya Prison. These controversial measures eventually turned Daraa into a symbol of resistance, revealing to the world the ruthlessness of the Assad regime.

As anger spread across Syria, the Assad regime escalated its crackdown. Tanks rolled into cities, and civilian demonstrations were met with live ammunition, making peaceful reform almost impossible Amidst this chaos, the U.S.-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) emerged, composed of defectors from Assad’s military and Syrian citizens determined to fight for freedom.

However, as protests turned into armed rebellion, extremist groups such as ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra, Al-Qaeda’s former affiliate in Syria, began to exploit the unrest, conducting mass killings, enslaving minority groups, and taking over territory, essentially worsening the preexisting humanitarian crisis leading to what ended up being a multi-sided full civil war by 2012. This justified international intervention in the region further complicating the dynamics of the conflict.

By 2012, Syria was engulfed in a multi-sided civil war, with the Russian Iranian-backed government on one side, the rebel groups on the other, and extremist groups such as ISIS seizing the opportunity to impose strict control, Syria found itself at an intense clash of ideology and politics. Iran and Hezbollah provided crucial support to Assad, while Russia’s airstrikes bolstered his hold on key territories. On the opposing side, Western nations supplied arms to the FSA, while extremist factions like Jabhat al-Nusra and ISIS pursued their own agendas. Kurdish drive for autonomy backed by American support gave rise to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) complicating battle lines.

While this war severely affected cities like Aleppo, Homs, and Raqqa, Assad’s forces began to show signs of exhaustion as defections mounted and his military stretched thin.

It was then that Hay’at Tahrir al Sham — a militant group that emerged in 2017 as a rebranding of Jabhat al-Nusra, — capitalized on these weaknesses by unifying fragmented rebel factions and directing their focus on critical targets. The group’s leader, Abu Mohammad al-Julani, prioritized cooperation over competition, forming alliances that proved decisive in their campaigns.

Between 2022 and 2024, the Southern Operations Room (SOR), a coalition of rebel groups from Daraa and As-Suwayda, played a critical role in the regime's downfall. Positioned near Damascus, the SOR leveraged their geographic advantage and the regime’s weakening southern defenses to lead the advance on the capital. Simultaneously, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) intensified its offensives in northern and central Syria, capturing key cities like Aleppo, Hama, and Homs with minimal resistance as Assad troops withdrew forcing them to consolidate in the north, leaving the south exposed.

In December 2024, a coordinated operation between HTS and the SOR resulted in major advances, which led to the breaching of Damascus by the SOR, then followed by HTS. The collaboration took advantage of the regime's depleted resources, strained military, and reduced foreign support, contributing to its downfall.

When Damascus fell, it wasn’t the climactic battle many had expected. Instead, the city was eerily quiet as Assad fled, ending over five decades of Assad family rule. Damascus saw government offices become scenes of looting, with civilians raiding buildings for supplies and documents. This also sent shockwaves through provinces like Latakia where pro-regime militias clashed in a desperate fight for power and control, while opposition-held areas celebrated the end of tyranny in public squares.

Internationally, Assad’s allies faltered — Russia began withdrawing personnel from its bases in Latakia, leaving the future of its Tartus naval base hung in the balance, while Iran repositioned operatives to safer areas. This set the stage for Syria to confront the remnants of its brutal regime-controlled past, beginning with the grim revelations of Saydnaya prison.

The “human slaughterhouse” as it is referred to, housed over 300,000 prisoners during Assad's regime,, many of whom had been imprisoned for decades without trial, and were often accused of minor infractions or vague charges of dissent, the Saydnaya Prison was a horrifying testament to the Assad regime’s collapse. Survivor testimonies detailed the systematic torture that defined Saydnaya, from the “iron press” that crushed bones while leaving the victim alive, to electric shocks that were applied with surgical precision to maximize pain. Evidence also surfaced of hanging torture, where detainees were left suspended for hours or days until their bodies gave out

The prison's structures themselves added to the terror. The main building, nicknamed the "red building," earned its name because of its red walls, said to be stained with the blood of executed detainees. The nearby "white building", said to be a crematory, houses execution tools such as the iron press and the human hangers used to suspend victims. Underground chambers beneath the prison added more layers to its infamy. In one chilling discovery, a concealed system of chambers was found behind an oven, heightening fears that more secret chambers might still exist as excavation efforts continue.

Saydnaya wasn’t just a prison; it was an assembly line of suffering. Starvation, overcrowding, and disease compounded the anguish. Survivors like Mazen Hamada, now an outspoken advocate in exile, recalled, “We lived in constant fear. You could hear the screams from other cells, and you knew it could be your turn at any moment.”, Organizations like Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, and the Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR) have documented the scale of the atrocities in the prison, estimating that tens of thousands of Syrians have disappeared, Amnesty International reported that up to 13,000 people were extrajudicially executed at Saydnaya Prison between 2011 and 2015, while SNHR estimates over 136,000 individuals, including children and women, have been detained since the Syrian civil war began. “We were treated as if we weren’t human,” he said in an interview with Al Jazeera. “The worst part wasn’t the pain — it was realizing that no one outside cared enough to stop it.”

The horrors of Saydnaya demand an urgent focus on Syria's future. Key stakeholders will shape the country’s trajectory, and among them, the Druze hold a unique position. Their role in the coming months could be critical to Syria’s path forward. The Druze, a religious and ethnic minority concentrated in southern Syria, holds significant historical and cultural importance in the region. Known for their distinct religious practices and political neutrality in many conflicts, the Druze have often navigated a precarious balance in Syrian society. Under Assad’s regime, they were granted limited autonomy in exchange for loyalty, a strategy that kept them somewhat insulated from the broader chaos of the civil war.

However, the fall of the regime has left the Druze vulnerable. In regions like As-Suwayda, where Druze communities are most concentrated, their leaders have expressed concerns about preserving their autonomy amid the growing influence of other rebel factions and external powers. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently referred to the Druze as “brothers of our Druze brothers in Israel” sparking fears of potential annexation efforts under the guise of protection

The neighboring state of Israel has increased its activities in southern Syria under the pretext of creating a buffer zone, citing security concerns over Iranian militias operating near its borders. Reports suggest that Israel has bolstered its presence in the Golan Heights — a territory internationally recognized as Syrian but occupied by Israel since 1967.

The Druze, many of whom reside in the Golan, now find themselves at the heart of this territorial struggle. While Israel has extended certain privileges to the Druze in occupied areas, some within the community have expressed skepticism about these gestures, citing concerns over potential long-term implications for territorial claims.

Turkey, another key player in the region, has escalated its military activities in northern Syria, citing security concerns over the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led coalition with alleged ties to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). With Assad’s regime no longer in a position to counter Turkish advances, Ankara has resumed military campaigns, citing the need to combat terrorism while expanding its influence in northern Syria. Observers have speculated that these actions are intended to limit Kurdish autonomy — a move that would embolden Kurdish separatist movements within Turkey itself.

Next, the Arab League. After years of ostracizing Assad’s Syria, the League is now faced with a critical decision: reintegrate the nation or risk leaving it vulnerable to further fragmentation. Discussions within the League have revealed a cautious optimism about Syria’s potential for stabilization under new leadership, though many member states remain wary of HTS’s influence.

The League has emphasized the importance of rebuilding Syria’s infrastructure and addressing the humanitarian crisis, however, as noted by Al Jazeera, critics argue that their actions have been “too little, too late” to mitigate the war’s devastating impacts outlining plans to combat challenges such as drug trafficking and support of refugee reintegration, Al Jazeera highlights that concrete progress has been minimal. Moreover, as The Council on Foreign Relations explains, the Arab League has faced challenges, including internal divisions, which have delayed its responses to Syria’s situation. Analysts from the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) have noted that the League's efforts are sometimes hindered by a lack of unified strategy. Nevertheless, the organization’s involvement signals a regional acknowledgment of Syria’s central role in the political stability of the Middle East

The first path for Syria’s recovery is one that offers a glimmer of hope — a scenario where Syria heals as a nation free from oppressive rule. Following the regime's collapse, the country is showing signs of recovery, both politically and economically. The interim government has pledged a 400% increase in public sector salaries, a move signaling their commitment to stabilizing the economy and alleviating poverty. Additionally, the Syrian Pound has steadily gained value on the foreign exchange market, reflecting increasing investor confidence and improved domestic conditions.

This resurgence can also be seen in the renewed engagement with foreign nations. Embassies are reopening in Damascus, symbolizing a growing willingness among international actors to acknowledge Syria's transformation. Diplomatic visits, like the recent trip by Barbara Leaf on Dec. 21, an official envoy from the United States, underline the global interest in Syria's trajectory post-conflict. These gestures indicate that, under the right leadership, Syria could restore its former status as a stable and thriving nation-state. The challenge, however, lies in maintaining momentum. This future hinges on avoiding external pressures and interventions. For the country to truly rebuild, international involvement needs to be withheld, Syrians need a breather and be allowed to determine their ecopolitical fate at least for the foreseeable future.

The second potential path is far more perilous: Syria's disintegration under external pressures. Neighboring countries and international powers are keen to leverage the power vacuum left by Assad's regime for their own geopolitical agendas. Turkey has expanded its operations into northern Syria, citing security threats posed by Kurdish forces, with its movements into regions like Aleppo and Hama raising concerns over potential territorial ambitions. In the south, Israel has bolstered its presence in the Golan Heights and expressed increased interest in areas such as As-Suwayda and Quneitra, framing its actions as necessary for security but prompting debates about their long-term implications. Similarly, the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the northeast have sought autonomy, potentially paving the way for a de facto Kurdish state in regions like Hasaka and Raqqa, though this raises concerns about potential tensions with Arab-majority areas. Meanwhile, Russia’s military and economic challenges have led to a reduced ability to maintain its influence in Syria, with critical assets like its air base in Latakia and port in Tartus under threat, further diminishing its strategic foothold in the Mediterranean.

This second path of fragmentation is further illustrated by the possibility of Syria splintering into autonomous zones. The following map I drew showcases potential territorial divisions, where regions fall under the control of external powers or independent states, such as:

These fractures threaten to undo any progress toward unity and could plunge Syria into prolonged instability.

The fall of the Assad regime, while monumental, has laid bare the immense challenges of rebuilding a nation ravaged by years of war, oppression, and foreign interference. The resilience of the Syrian people and the modest gains in economic recovery and diplomacy suggest that a unified Syria is within reach. However, the specter of external exploitation and territorial disintegration looms large, threatening to further fracture an already devastated land.

And this wall? It’s the very same one that, over a decade ago, carried the words that lit the spark of rebellion: “إجاك الدور يا دكتور” ("Your turn is coming, Doctor"). At the time, it was the innocent defiance of children that unveiled the regime's brutal response and ignited a nationwide uprising. But now, the wall tells a different story. Repainted in recent weeks, it bears a strikingly similar message, updated to reflect the reality of Assad’s fall: “خلص الدور يا دكتور” ("Your turn is over, Doctor").

This powerful full-circle moment resonates deeply with Syrians and the world. It’s a reminder of the long and painful journey from oppression to freedom, one marked by immeasurable loss but also by enduring hope.

Syria’s future lies in its people’s resolve to reclaim sovereignty, mend divisions, and rebuild from years of suffering. Whether it rises united or fractures under external pressures will define its destiny and the region’s stability. The world watches, hopeful but cautious, as this ancient land struggles to step out of a dark shadow into a brighter era.