On the weekend of Nov. 21, Abu Dhabi had the most rain it has had since the mid-2000s. This was the result of a low-pressure atmospheric system that had developed in the north of the Arabian Gulf. The storm was so severe and unusual for the UAE that Abu Dhabi Art, the annual art festival, had to be closed due to leaking in Manarat Saadiyat, the Dubai Air Show was cancelled, there was widespread flooding and schools were closed in Abu Dhabi, Al Ain and Dubai.

Normally, Abu Dhabi’s rainfall is concentrated in winter and lasts only for a few minutes, averaging 12 centimeters per year. However, some years will have no rainfall, while others will have double the average.

Researchers at NYU Abu Dhabi’s Center for Prototype Modeling traced the storm’s origin back to the Mediterranean. Although the Northern Emirates will occasionally get rain from monsoons in the Indian Ocean, it is much more uncommon for the emirate of Abu Dhabi to receive the brunt of any storm. In mid-November, cyclone Cleopatra formed over the Mediterranean, causing a state of emergency in Sardinia. The formation of cyclones, areas of extremely low pressure, in the Mediterranean is unusual; they appear more commonly in the Atlantic, Indian or Pacific oceans.

Following Cleopatra, a high-pressure atmospheric system formed and moved southwards. The cool, dry air of this anti-cyclone met with the warm, moist air that moves northward from the Arabian Sea and Africa. When these two systems meet, a phenomenon of occlusion occurs, which leads to a low-pressure area, in turn leading to precipitation. What exacerbated this effect was the unusually strong Indian monsoons of this year, which increased the humidity of the air over the Arabian Sea by between 15 and 20 percent. The combination of all of these events led to the rain of late November.

This rainfall followed a global pattern of extreme weather events this year, including Typhoon Haiyan, which at landfall was the strongest storm ever recorded.

“While you cannot link one event to, say, climate change … frequency of such events are increasing and frequency of extremes are increasing,” said Dr. Ajaya Ravindran of the Center for Prototype Modeling.

Ravindran noted, in extrapolating from global trends, that Abu Dhabi could expect to experience warmer temperatures and more rain in the future.

One issue that has hampered climate predictions for Ravindran and others is the lack and poor accessibility of local data.

“Things are not that open [in accessing weather data],” said senior Support Scientist Praveen Veluthedathekuzhiyil from the Center of Prototype Modeling.

This data will be useful as the UAE is at high risk of further weather variability and sea-level rise brought on by climate change. The concentration of the UAE’s population along the coastline increases the number of people who would be affected by sea-level rise. With a three-meter rise in sea levels, 0.8 percent of Abu Dhabi Emirate’s area would be lost. This percentage, although small, would cover coastal areas where most people and infrastructure are located.

The UAE is the most at-risk country in the Middle East and North Africa area. Abu Dhabi will have to focus on future-proofing its infrastructure in case of rising sea levels since the city is built at sea level. Abu Dhabi’s current infrastructure, with rainwater still on the streets and plants growing out of drains after the rain, will have to undergo significant improvements to be able to handle increases in precipitation. Additionally, development trends, with large buildings such as the Louvre Abu Dhabi being built over water, may need to take into account higher sea levels.